NOAA stands by its forecast
For the Atlantic season from 1 June to 30 November 2026, NOAA expects 7 to 13 named storms (winds ≥ 63 km/h), of which 2 to 6 will become hurricanes (winds ≥ 119 km/h) and 0 to 2 will be major hurricanes (winds ≥ 179 km/h). The agency assigns a 75 percent probability to a below‑average season, 20 percent to an average season and 5 percent to an above‑average season. The ranges include systems that have already been observed.
Putting the numbers in context
The reference period 1991–2020 has an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s outlook falls below those climatological averages. Seasonal outlooks assess overall basin activity — they are not forecasts of individual storm tracks or landfalls. Even with fewer total storms, single systems can still cause substantial damage.
Seasonal timing
Peak activity typically occurs in late summer, around early to mid‑September. During this period, the formation and intensification of tropical systems usually increase.
Basis of the assessment
NOAA combines observations and model projections. Influencing factors include sea surface temperatures, large‑scale circulation patterns, vertical wind shear, moisture over the tropical Atlantic and Saharan dust transport. Low wind shear and warm surface waters favor development; strong shear and dry air suppress it. The assessment will be updated during the season as new data become available.
Preparedness remains essential
A below‑average season is not an all‑clear. Coasts, islands and low‑lying areas remain at risk from storm surge, heavy rainfall and strong winds. Practical steps include: – Reviewing evacuation and communication plans – Assembling emergency supplies (water, food, medications) – Securing buildings and loose outdoor items – Keeping important documents and insurance information accessible and organized
Follow operational warnings
The seasonal outlook does not replace short‑term hazard information. Satellites, reconnaissance flights and weather models continually provide forecasts of storm tracks and intensity. Residents and authorities should monitor official warnings and act promptly on instructions.
Climate background
Long‑term warming can increase the intensity and rainfall of individual tropical cyclones. At the same time, changes in frequency and regional distribution remain uncertain. Seasonal forecasts account for these signals but provide probability ranges rather than precise predictions.
Outlook
NOAA’s forecast points to overall reduced activity but does not lessen the need for vigilance and preparation. Ultimately, the danger from the season will depend on the tracks and timing of individual storms.