Schlagwort: Atlantic

  • NOAA confirms: Atlantic hurricane season 2026 expected to be below average

    NOAA confirms: Atlantic hurricane season 2026 expected to be below average

    NOAA stands by its forecast

    For the Atlantic season from 1 June to 30 November 2026, NOAA expects 7 to 13 named storms (winds ≥ 63 km/h), of which 2 to 6 will become hurricanes (winds ≥ 119 km/h) and 0 to 2 will be major hurricanes (winds ≥ 179 km/h). The agency assigns a 75 percent probability to a below‑average season, 20 percent to an average season and 5 percent to an above‑average season. The ranges include systems that have already been observed.

    Putting the numbers in context

    The reference period 1991–2020 has an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s outlook falls below those climatological averages. Seasonal outlooks assess overall basin activity — they are not forecasts of individual storm tracks or landfalls. Even with fewer total storms, single systems can still cause substantial damage.

    Seasonal timing

    Peak activity typically occurs in late summer, around early to mid‑September. During this period, the formation and intensification of tropical systems usually increase.

    Basis of the assessment

    NOAA combines observations and model projections. Influencing factors include sea surface temperatures, large‑scale circulation patterns, vertical wind shear, moisture over the tropical Atlantic and Saharan dust transport. Low wind shear and warm surface waters favor development; strong shear and dry air suppress it. The assessment will be updated during the season as new data become available.

    Preparedness remains essential

    A below‑average season is not an all‑clear. Coasts, islands and low‑lying areas remain at risk from storm surge, heavy rainfall and strong winds. Practical steps include: – Reviewing evacuation and communication plans – Assembling emergency supplies (water, food, medications) – Securing buildings and loose outdoor items – Keeping important documents and insurance information accessible and organized

    Follow operational warnings

    The seasonal outlook does not replace short‑term hazard information. Satellites, reconnaissance flights and weather models continually provide forecasts of storm tracks and intensity. Residents and authorities should monitor official warnings and act promptly on instructions.

    Climate background

    Long‑term warming can increase the intensity and rainfall of individual tropical cyclones. At the same time, changes in frequency and regional distribution remain uncertain. Seasonal forecasts account for these signals but provide probability ranges rather than precise predictions.

    Outlook

    NOAA’s forecast points to overall reduced activity but does not lessen the need for vigilance and preparation. Ultimately, the danger from the season will depend on the tracks and timing of individual storms.

  • From Africa to the Pacific: Two Hurricanes on a Transoceanic Journey

    From Africa to the Pacific: Two Hurricanes on a Transoceanic Journey

    Satellite images confirm what meteorological analyses have long suggested: the later Pacific hurricanes Fausto and Genevieve began as tropical waves off the west coast of Africa, traveled thousands of kilometers westward, crossed the Atlantic and Central America, and only intensified into hurricanes over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific.

    Tropical waves: origin and characteristics

    Tropical waves—often called African or Cape Verde waves—regularly form along the southern edge of the Sahara near the Cape Verde islands. Temperature and pressure contrasts modulate the trade winds and create waves with alternating enhanced and suppressed convection. Many strong Atlantic hurricanes originate this way. A characteristic feature is a carried low-level spin that can serve as the seed for a later cyclone if sea surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture and wind shear are favorable.

    Across the continent into the Pacific

    On their westward path across the Atlantic, some waves weaken, for example due to dry air intrusions such as Saharan dust. Others retain a remnant circulation when they reach Central America. Although crossing land suppresses convection, the low-level vorticity can survive. If these disturbances emerge south of Mexico or Central America over warm waters with abundant moisture and low vertical wind shear, conditions favor reorganization into a tropical depression—as happened with Fausto and Genevieve.

    What the ocean crossing does

    In the eastern Pacific the systems encountered favorable conditions and developed into tropical storms and later hurricanes. Energy flux from the warm sea surface and a conducive surrounding environment allowed them to intensify rapidly as they moved westward.

    Tracking the traces by satellite

    Modern Earth observation made the origin paths visible. Imagery from the geostationary GOES‑West satellite showed multiple tropical cyclones over the Pacific at the same time—including Fausto, Genevieve and, farther west, a typhoon. Such datasets enable continuous tracking of cloud and circulation patterns over days to weeks and across great distances. For weather services they provide clues about structure, potential tracks and intensification. Combined with radar and in‑situ data, satellite information improves modelling—and thus the lead time for coastal warnings.

    Coastal impacts

    Even without direct landfall, distant wind and wave energy increased surf: Fausto produced high waves off Hawaii, and Genevieve enhanced surf along southern California. These indirect effects are common when extensive wind fields develop over the ocean. For coastal residents this means elevated hazards from large surf and rip currents, even when the storm remains far offshore.

    Why the origin matters

    That Atlantic tropical waves can become hurricanes in the Pacific is known, but the recent examples underscore the close linkage between the two ocean basins. Long‑distance tracking increases forecast confidence, especially during transition periods between the Atlantic and Pacific seasons. For climate research, such cases are important: changes in sea surface temperatures, vertical wind shear or large‑scale circulation patterns influence the likelihood that a tropical wave will complete the stages toward hurricane formation. Statements about individual storms remain complex; robust trends require long‑term, statistically evaluated observations.

    Context

    Fausto and Genevieve demonstrate how far the life cycle of tropical vortices can extend—from the African coast into the open Pacific. Global observation systems and careful analysis reveal these development paths and improve early warnings and risk management for distant coastlines.